Quantum Computing and Cyber Insurance: Preparing for the Post-Quantum Era

The Quantum Threat Timeline

Quantum computing isn’t science fiction anymore. While we don’t yet have quantum computers powerful enough to break current encryption, experts agree it’s a matter of when, not if.

Current Timeline Estimates

Why This Matters Now

“Harvest now, decrypt later” (HNDL) attacks are already happening:

1. Nation-state actors are collecting encrypted data today
2. They’re storing it until quantum computers are available
3. Then they’ll decrypt years’ worth of sensitive information

If your data has long-term value (healthcare records, financial data, intellectual property, government contracts), you’re already a target.

What “Post-Quantum Cryptography” Means

In August 2024, NIST finalized its first post-quantum cryptographic standards. These new algorithms are designed to resist both classical and quantum computer attacks.

The New Standards

• ML-KEM (formerly CRYSTALS-Kyber) – Key encapsulation
• ML-DSA (formerly CRYSTALS-Dilithium) – Digital signatures
• SLH-DSA (formerly SPHINCS+) – Stateless signatures

The Migration Challenge

Upgrading to post-quantum cryptography isn’t simple:

• Legacy systems may not support new algorithms
• Performance impacts can be significant
• Hybrid approaches (classical + PQC) needed during transition
• Testing and validation take time

How Insurers Are Responding

Current Policy Considerations

Most cyber policies don’t explicitly address quantum threats yet, but that’s changing:

2025-2026 developments:

• Some carriers offering crypto-agility endorsements
• Premium discounts for PQC readiness assessments
• New questionnaire sections on cryptographic inventory
• Pilot programs for quantum risk coverage

Questions Underwriters Are Starting to Ask

1. Do you maintain an inventory of cryptographic assets?
2. Have you assessed your exposure to “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks?
3. What’s your timeline for post-quantum cryptography migration?
4. Do you have crypto-agility built into your systems?

Practical Steps for Businesses

Phase 1: Assess (Now - Q2 2026)

Create a cryptographic inventory:

• Where is encryption used in your organization?
• What algorithms are in use?
• What data has long-term sensitivity (10+ years)?
• Which systems would be hardest to upgrade?

Identify high-risk data:

• Healthcare records
• Financial account information
• Intellectual property
• Government/defense contracts
• Long-term business strategies

Phase 2: Plan (2026-2027)

Develop a migration roadmap:

• Prioritize systems by risk and complexity
• Budget for upgrades and testing
• Train technical staff on PQC
• Engage vendors about their PQC timelines

Consider hybrid approaches:

• Run classical and PQC algorithms in parallel
• Allows gradual transition
• Provides fallback if issues arise

Phase 3: Implement (2027-2030)

Begin migration:

• Start with highest-risk, most capable systems
• Extensive testing before production
• Document everything for compliance/insurance
• Plan for ongoing crypto-agility

Insurance Implications

What Coverage Exists Today

Expected Policy Changes (2026-2028)

Industry experts predict:

1. Crypto-agility requirements becoming standard
2. PQC readiness discounts expanding
3. Quantum exclusions possible for unprepared businesses
4. Extended reporting periods for HNDL attacks

Premium Impact of PQC Readiness

Industry-Specific Considerations

Financial Services

• Regulators increasingly focused on crypto risk
• Long data retention requirements increase exposure
• High-value target for nation-state actors

Healthcare

• HIPAA data has permanent sensitivity
• Medical devices often have long lifecycles
• Research data highly valuable

Government Contractors

• CMMC requirements will expand to include PQC
• Already subject to HNDL attacks
• Long contract lifecycles mean long exposure

Critical Infrastructure

• OT systems often can’t be easily upgraded
• Safety implications of compromised systems
• Long asset lifecycles (20+ years)

Documentation for Insurance

When discussing quantum risk with your insurer, be prepared to show:

1. Cryptographic inventory – What encryption you use where
2. Risk assessment – Which data has long-term value
3. Migration timeline – Your plan for PQC transition
4. Vendor management – How you’re engaging suppliers
5. Training records – Staff awareness of quantum risks

The Bottom Line

Quantum computing will eventually break current encryption. The question isn’t whether to prepare—it’s whether you prepare now (at your pace) or later (at an attacker’s pace).

Businesses that demonstrate PQC awareness and planning will:

• ✅ Get better insurance coverage and pricing
• ✅ Reduce long-term breach risk
• ✅ Meet emerging regulatory requirements
• ✅ Protect data that must remain confidential for decades

Those that ignore the threat will find themselves uninsurable—or breached—when quantum computing matures.